Turn him to any cause of policy,
The Gordian Knot of it he will unloose,
Familiar as his garter
~ Shakespeare, Henry V, Act I Scene 1.
- Food supply in fragile countries is drastically reduced with drought and flooding; terrorist groups swoop in to exploit their vulnerability. Where an unstable government exists, climate impacts tip families into poverty and exposure to violence. We see this at our own border with immigration from Central America and in numerous countries in Africa.
- Traditional fishing grounds are impacted when fish stocks migrate northward with one country losing and another benefitting – a perfect recipe for conflict.
- Water wars pit countries against each other especially when there is long-term animosity: Pakistan and India over the Indus River. [Northern California versus Southern California, and states in the Colorado River Pact including Native Tribes with water rights on their reservations.]
- Melting Arctic ice exposes U.S. allies to potential Russian threats; melting permafrost release long-dormant disease vectors for which humanity may not have immunity;
- Lack of easy access to the best data for risk assessment and planning from governmental agencies (NOAA for example) that keep large databases. Access is ad hoc, often who one knows, to gain access. [This reflects the disruption of many U.S. agencies including reduced staffing and new policies that have broken down interagency cooperative research.]
How these forces combine to increase risks to national security is our Gordian Knot. Follow the link to the video.